answered: This extra credit forecasting assignment is available for th

  

This extra credit forecasting assignment is available for the next two weeks. I have provided two “mystery” time series below. Each is a real world, quarterly time series, that has been transformed in some way so that you cannot discover (easily) its true identity. Your assignment is to create a 1-year (4-quarter) forecast for each series (e.g., for Series X this means providing a forecast for the four quarters 161, 162, 163 and 164). You can use any method or combination of methods that you feel is best but you must provide enough detail about how you created your forecast so that someone else could replicate it, given your description. After the due date, I will reveal the actual values for the next 4 quarters and for each series 15 points of extra credit will be awarded to the most accurate forecast based on MSE. (Other, less accurate forecasts will receive extra credit points based on their accuracy in comparison to the most accurate forecast). description of how it was created (any transformation you made to the series, which observations were used in the calculation, what technique, etc.). You should provide enough detail that someone else could replicate your forecast exactly.
IMPORTANT~~~!!!!
This is TWO SEPARATE ASSIGNMENTS – ONE is SERIES X, other is SERIES Y PLEASE UPLOAD INDIVIDUALLY