Read the Standish Group CHAOS Report 2013 (attached file) and 2015 Chaos Report summary (link below). Compare and contrast the findings from the 2013 and 2015 reports. Summarize and expand on key elements of the reports, including differences and similarities in Project Management practices and successes. Discuss trends, best practices, findings, and relate to class content. Consider the discussion from the management perspective of the Project Management Office, discussing the documents value and best practices to support BOCR (Benefits, Opportunities, Costs, & Risk) analysis.Only do findings part, and about half to one pagelink: https://www.infoq.com/articles/standish-chaos-2015
the_standish_group_2013_chaos_manifesto_1_.pdf
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CHAOS MANIFESTO 2013
Think Big, Act Small
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Executive Management Support
User Involvement
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Skilled Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Project Management Expertise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Agile Process
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Clear Business Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Emotional Maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Execution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Tools and Infrastructure
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
PREFACE
CHAOS Manifesto 2013: Think Big, Act Small is a subset of the online version of the
CHAOS Chronicles, known as the CHAOS Knowledge Center (CKC). This version of
the CHAOS Manifesto focuses on small projects and is based on the CKC version
40-12. The online CHAOS Chronicles contains 100 Best Practice Points and 300
practice elements. CHAOS Chronicles is a work in progress, and new research is
added and updated every month along with other supporting features. Currently
there are more than 900 charts in the CKC. This report is broken into 12 main
sections. Sections 2 to 11 cover the CHAOS Success Factors for Small Projects.
The Standish Group has been collecting case information on real-life IT
environments and software development projects since 1985. We get many
questions about how we populate the CHAOS database. First, you should understand we
are analysts and advisors, not data collectors. Second, each piece of data and every project
is reviewed thoroughly by an analyst before it goes in the database. Third, we have a standard
and nonstandard list of questions to determine the accuracy of the data given to us that goes into
the database. Fourth, nothing is taken at face value and everything is questioned. Fifth, we have
been rebuilding the CHAOS database starting in June 2012 to create a standard format. The new
database will be used to present the current data analytics.
CHAOS Manifesto is based on the collection of project case information on real-life IT environments
and software projects. This version and past versions have used eight different instruments in the
collection of this information, which includes project profiles, project tracking, individual project
surveys, case interviews, general surveys, project postmortems, and other instruments. CHAOS
research encompasses 18 years of data on why projects succeed or fail, representing more than
90,000 completed IT projects. However, for our new database we eliminated cases from 1994
though 2002, since they did not match the current requirements for analysis. The new database
has just under 50,000 projects.
CHAOS DEMOGRAPHICS: CHAOS results provide a global view of project statistics but do tend to
have a heavier concentration on the United States and Europe. For each reporting period, about
60% of the projects are U.S. based, 25% are European, and the remaining 15% represent the rest
of the world. A little more than half of the companies are considered Fortune 1000-type companies;
another 30% would be considered midrange; and 20% are in the small-range category. They span
a diverse number of vertical industries and organizations. Participants are made up of a variety of
CIOs, VPs, directors, and PMO project managers.
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
INTRODUCTION
The 2012 CHAOS results show another increase
CHAOS RESOLUTION
in project success rates, with 39% of all projects
succeeding (delivered on time, on budget, with
Successful
39%
43%
required features and functions); 43% were
Failed
challenged (late, over budget, and/or with less than
Challenged
the required features and functions); and 18% failed
(cancelled prior to completion or delivered and never
Project resolution from
18%
used). These numbers represent an uptick in the
2012 CHAOS research.
success rates from the previous study, as well as a
decrease in the number of failures. The low point in
the last five study periods was 2004, in which only 29% of the projects were successful. This year’s
results represent a high watermark for success rates in the history of CHAOS research.
The increase in success is a result of several factors, including looking at the entire project
environment of processes, methods, skills, costs, tools, decisions, optimization, internal and
external influences, and team chemistry. Advances in the understanding of the skills needed to be
a good executive sponsor have proved to be very valuable for increasing success rates. Increases
in project management as a profession and trained project management professionals can be
tied directly to increases in success rates. In addition, we have seen an increase in the number
of smaller projects and agile projects. Further, we have seen a decrease in waterfall projects.
However, success does not come without a cost. It has come with an increase in project overhead,
along with a reduction in value and innovation.
The use of project health checks, retrospectives, dashboards, and tracking systems provides for an
early warning system so corrective actions can be taken. More than 90% of organizations perform
some type of project postmortems or closeout retrospectives. Most organizations are finding that
these end-of-project reviews are helpful for improving their next project and their general project
practices. However, very few organizations capture this information in standard electronic format,
and many times the information is lost or forgotten. It is one of the reasons we see initial project
improvement, and then find that organizations backslide into old bad habits. Eternal vigilance is the
price of success. This is the purpose behind The Standish Group’s Project Service Advisory (PSA).
The single most important advancement to improve project success rates is the increase in competency
of the executive sponsor. In our opinion, the executive sponsor is the owner of the project. As owner
of the project, this person has the full weight and responsibility for the success or failure of the project
squarely on his or her shoulders. The role of an executive sponsor is not so much chief executive officer,
but more “chief enabling officer.” As chief enabling officer, the executive sponsor’s job is to make sure
he or she provides the support, resources, and guidance to allow the project team to be successful. This
is the reason for our Executive Sponsor Appraisal (ESA).
RESOLUTION
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Successful
29%
35%
32%
37%
39%
Failed
18%
19%
24%
21%
18%
Challenged
53%
46%
44%
42%
43%
Project resolution
results from CHAOS
research for years
2004 to 2012.
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
1
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
OVERRUNS AND FEATURES
Time and cost
overruns, plus
percentage of
features delivered
from CHAOS research
for the years 2004 to
2012.
100
80
60
40
Features
20
Cost
Time
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
TIME
84%
72%
79%
71%
74%
COST
56%
47%
54%
46%
59%
FEATURES
64%
68%
67%
74%
69%
Determining the relationship of project overruns to features delivered is an analytical process. An
analyst reviews each challenged project. This year’s figures show a slight increase in both cost and
time overruns. Cost overruns increased from 56% in 2004 to 59% in 2012. Time overruns also
have gone up, from 71% in 2010 to 74% in 2012. The high point in time overruns was 2004 (84%).
Features and functions developed went down, with 74% of specified requirements completed in
2010, dropping to 69% in 2012. We think this could be a good sign as organizations spend more
time focusing on high-value requirements versus completing 100% of the requirements.
Our analysis suggests that 20% of features are used often and 50% of features are hardly ever
or never used. The gray area is about 30%, where features and functions get used sometimes or
infrequently. The task of requirements gathering, selecting, and implementing is the most difficult
in developing custom applications. In summary, there is no doubt that focusing on the 20% of the
features that give you 80% of the value will maximize the investment in software development and
improve overall user satisfaction. After all, there is never enough time or money to do everything.
The natural expectation is for executives and stakeholders to want it all and want it all now.
Therefore, reducing scope and not doing 100% of the features and functions is not only a valid
strategy, but a prudent one.
Very few large projects perform well to the project management triple constraints of cost, time,
and scope. In contrast to small projects, which have more than a 70% chance of success, a large
project has virtually no chance of coming in on time, on budget, and within scope, which is The
Standish Group definition of a successful project. Large projects have twice the chance of being
late, over budget, and missing critical features than their smaller project counterparts. A large
project is more than 10 times more likely to fail outright, meaning it will be cancelled or will not be
used because it outlived its useful life prior to implementation.
It is very clear that reducing scope and breaking up large projects are difficult tasks. However, the
rewards and benefits are quickly evident when the organization starts to receive value early in the
project cycle. We, the writers, also have come to believe that there is no need for large projects,
and that any IT project can be broken into a series of small projects that could also be done in
parallel if necessary. One should not confuse breaking down projects into milestones, phases,
critical paths, and activities as small projects. Delivery of concrete and usable results demarks a
successful completed project. Small projects deliver a valuable result that is actually used to create
a return on investment (ROI). This is the purpose for the Standish OptiMix Solution and Clinic.
2
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
FACTORS OF SUCCESS FOR SMALL PROJECTS
The current 2013 Factors of Success in the
Factors of Success
CKC are unchanged from 2012. We have
Executive management support
20
developed a special version of the Factors
User involvement
15
of Success for Small Projects using our new
Optimization
15
Skilled resources
13
Project management expertise
12
Agile process
10
has executive sponsorship as the number one
Clear business objectives
6
factor, but the prioritization of some of the
Emotional maturity
5
other factors shifts.
Execution
3
Tools and infrastructure
1
CHAOS database and analytic tools. The small
project version of the Factors of Success also
Executive Management Support: The most important
person in the project is the executive sponsor. The
executive sponsor is ultimately responsible for the
success and failure of the project. We give executive
sponsorship 20 small project success points.
User Involvement: CHAOS research clearly shows that
projects that lack user involvement perform poorly. User
participation has a major effect on project resolution
large or small; in fact, we give it 15% of our small project
success points.
Optimization: Is in the third spot for small projects. If
we defined optimization as a project with a small labor
content and fast delivery, it could be number one. Size
and complexity trump all other factors. Optimization gets
15 small project success points.
Skilled Resources: In the fourth position and with 13
small project success points, it may seem that skilled
resources gets no respect, but that is not true. A project
is made up of people, and success is on their shoulders.
This is especially true for small projects.
Project Management Expertise: We might also call
it process management expertise. In any case, it is
essential to controlling the progression of small projects
and the collaboration of the stakeholders and team
members. Project management expertise accounts for
12 small project success points out of 100.
Points
Agile Process: Embodies the small project philosophy.
The agile process directly addresses user involvement,
executive support, and the other success factors. We
give the agile process 10 small project success points.
Clear Business Objectives: A less important ingredient
for small projects than larger projects. Still, the small
project should have a business objective, though it might
be less clear. Even so, all projects should align the
organization’s goals and strategy, which is why it has 6
of the small project success points.
Emotional Maturity: Covers the emotional state of
the project environment. Projects get resolved within
the ecosystem; a healthy ecosystem produces more
successful projects. Emotional maturity accounts for 5
small project success points.
Execution: Is the process that governs and controls the
project. Much of this factor focuses on financial controls
and procedures. We give execution 3 small project
success points.
Tools and Infrastructure: They can help a project
succeed, but like any tool they can also hurt.
Organizations must be extremely careful not to rely too
much on tools for a project’s success. We give this
factor only 1 small project success point.
The first five success factors focus on the execution of small project skills, and provide the greatest benefit for
success. The first three success factors account for 50% of the points while all five account for three-quarters of the
points. The last five success factors help, but provide the least benefit for success, with a total of 25 points out of
100. The Standish Group further breaks down the success factors into points and assigns fractions of the scores to
each of these points. The main body of this report outlines the CHAOS 100 Best Practices for Small Projects or what
we call Success Points for Small Projects.
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
3
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
THINK BIG, ACT SMALL
The New York City Automated Payroll (NYCAP) System started in 1999 and was declared completed
in 2011. The budget and original estimate was $66 million. When the project was declared
completed, the total cost was an astounding $360-plus million, or 5.5 times the original budget.
The NYCAP project was one of many large troubled projects in the New York City government around
this time. Another project was the CityTime project, which had a budget of $63 million over five
years, but ultimately cost $700 million over 10 years. In reaction to these projects’ challenges, the
NYC Council passed an ordinance that any IT project that exceeded the budget by more than 10%
must report to the City Council.
While there were many reasons why these NYC projects failed to perform as planned, oversight
was not one of them. However, the NYC Council’s reaction to these project management failures
was typical, predictable, and disappointing. It was disappointing because adding more layers
of bureaucracy on top of an overbloated process will make future projects more complicated,
more expensive, and more challenging. The Standish Group has categorically stated with much
conviction—backed by intense research—that the secret to project success is to strongly
recommend and enforce limits on size and complexity. These two factors trump all others factors.
Considering size and complexity as the major success factors has led us to some very interesting
conclusions and challenges.
It is critical to break down large projects into a sequence of smaller ones, prioritized on direct
business value, and install stable, full-time, cross-functional teams that execute these projects
following a disciplined agile and optimization approach. Organizations that have adopted this
approach have seen major project improvement and their project investments have increased. More
and more companies are recognizing that a small project optimization solution is highly effective.
The quick solution is to just say no to large projects, but the more sensible answer is to adopt a
small project strategy. Many companies routinely deliver software at half the cost and less than half
the defects with this strategy.
Projects too often get too big to succeed. CIOs and information technology executives are constantly
being called on to do more for less. The real key to success is doing less for less. The key to doing
less for less is splitting large projects into a sequence of small ones by using optimization; the
Standish OptiMix is an example of an optimization tool. Optimization can save your company, your
project, your budget, and your job. Throughout the CHAOS Manifesto 2013 we will attempt to show
you how you can optimize your projects successfully.
CHAOS RESOLUTION BY LARGE AND SMALL PROJECTS
Project resolution for the
calendar year 2012 in the
new CHAOS database. Small
projects are defined as
projects with less than $1
million in labor content and
large projects are considered
projects with more than $10
million in labor content.
4
Small Projects
Large Projects
Successful
Failed
10%
20%
Challenged
4%
52%
76%
38%
THE CHAOS MANIFESTO
Copyright © 2013. The CHAOS Manifesto is protected by copyright and is the sole property of The Standish Group International, Incorporated. It may not
under any circumstances be retransmitted in any form, repackaged in any way, or resold through any media. All rights reserved.
SUCCESS FACTOR ONE: EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT SUPPORT
All projects need to have a committed executive sponsor or product owner
who supports the project and takes responsibility for the outcome. Lesson One in
the CHAOS Knowledge Center (CKC) outlines the skills and the responsibilities of
the executive sponsor. Executive management support is also the first Factor
of Success for Small Projects. Our Executive Sponsor Appraisal tests these
skills. Small projects allow a new or inexperienced executive sponsor to gain
expertise while not burdening his or her main job function. Here, the CHAOS 10
Success Points for Executive Support are modified for …
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