I have attached the problems and the grading guidlines.. Please help.
mth215r2_human_pop_growth_scenario.doc
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Human Population Growth Scenario
MTH/215 Version 2
1
Human Population Growth Scenario
You have been appointed to a team to investigate human population growth and food/water consumption.
Your ultimate goal is to determine when we will no longer be able to produce enough food and water for
the world’s population.
There are four main roles in this project. Select a role and complete the task listed under the role.
Role #1 Population Analyst 1 (historical archives)
You believe that the answer lies in historical data. Investigate the estimated world population from 1 A.D.
to 1750 A.D. in the following U.S. Census data:
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
a) Collect the data (population vs. year) from 1 A.D. to 1750 A.D., and put the data into Excel®
(use lower summary).
b) Create a scatterplot of the data (population vs. year).
c) Perform linear regression and exponential regression on your scatterplot. Which is a better
fit? How do you know? What is the best fit equation?
d) Experts believe that the world’s maximum population is 10,000,000,000. According to your
results, when will we reach 10 billion? How confident are you in your prediction? Why? What
factor(s) may also need to be considered?
e) Include your graph, equation, calculations and results.
Role #2 Population Analyst 2 (modern archives)
You believe that the answer lies in modern data. Investigate the estimated world population from 1750
A.D.to 2015 A.D. in the following U.S. Census data:
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_population.php
a) Collect the data (population vs. year) from 1750 A.D. to 2015 A.D. You will have to collect
data from the first table (use the lower summary) and add in the data from the second table.
Put the data into Excel®.
b) Create a scatterplot of the data (population vs. year).
c) Perform linear regression and exponential regression on your scatterplot. Which is a better
fit? How do you know? What is the best fit equation?
d) Experts believe that the world’s maximum population is 10,000,000,000. According to your
results, when will we reach 10 billion? How confident are you in your prediction? Why? What
factor(s) may also need to be considered?
e) Include your graphs, equations, calculations and results.
(Continued on next page)
Human Population Growth Scenario
MTH/215 Version 2
2
Role #3 Food Analyst
You believe that the answer lies in calculating how much land we have on earth that we use for
agriculture. The table below is the percent of arable land being used on earth (land that is being used for
agriculture) per year.
Year
Percent of Arable Land
Used for Agriculture
1991
18.60
1992
18.80
1993
19.00
1994
19.20
1995
19.50
1996
19.80
1997
20.10
1998
20.30
1999
20.50
2000
20.80
2001
21.20
2002
21.50
2003
21.80
2004
22.10
2005
22.30
a) Create a scatterplot of the data (percent arable land vs. year).
b) Perform linear regression and exponential regression on your scatterplot. Which is a better
fit? How do you know? What is the best fit equation?
c) When will we be using all of the possible land (100%)? How confident are you in this
prediction? Why? What factor(s) may also need to be considered?
d) Include your graphs, equations, calculations and results.
(Continued on next page)
Human Population Growth Scenario
MTH/215 Version 2
3
Role #4 Water Analyst
You believe that the answer lies in calculating how much fresh water we use on earth for consumption,
agriculture, etc. The table below is the estimated volume of freshwater withdrawn on earth in a year vs.
the year the data was taken.
a) Create a scatterplot of the data (yearly volume vs. year).
b) Perform linear regression and exponential regression on your scatterplot. Which is a better
fit? How do you know? What is the best fit equation?
c) If the average volume of precipitation on earth is 500,000 cubic kilometers per year, when will
we be using as much as we get from precipitation? How confident are you in this prediction?
Why? What factor(s) may also need to be considered?
d) Present your graphs, equations, calculations and results to the leader and the group.
Year
Volume of Freshwater Withdrawn
in a Year (in cubic kilometers)
1960
2000
1970
2500
1980
3100
1990
3600
1995
3800
2000
4000
Source: University of Michigan, “Human Appropriation of the World’s Fresh Water Supply.”
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/
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